Saints and Ladders

“Crowded” is a word that aptly describes both the recent Irish Presidential election and the on-going race for the Republican Party's nomination. On October 27^th a total of 7 candidates vied for the support of the Irish people making it the most heavily contested presidential poll in the country's history. Republicans have faced a choice just as varied and their allegiances have shifted wildly as early favourites have been brought low by gaff and scandal only for once doubtful candidates to capitalise and see their poll numbers swell.

The past month bore witness to the implosion of Republican hopeful and pizza mogul Herman Cain. No less than 4 women have come forward to accuse Mr. Cain of sexual misdeeds, leading to a plummet in support among the Republican's conservative Christian base and his subsequent exit from the race.

Sexual misconduct also spelled the end for Irish independent presidential candidate Senator David Norris, when it emerged that he had written several letters to Israeli judicial and political figures seeking clemency for a former partner, Ezra Yizhak Nawi, who was convicted of the statutory rape of a 15 year old boy. Cain's withdrawal means he will avoid the eventual fate of Norris, who faced down public ire to contest the national poll but ended up with a mere 6.4% of the vote down from a high of 40% in pre-election opinion polls.

At the other end of the spectrum Newt Gingrich has risen, phoenix like, from depths of 4% in July to top opinion polls in many early voting states. This remarkable turn-around has stunned political commentators, many of whom wrote Gingrich off after the mass resignation of his campaign staff over the summer. This late stage surge bares comparing to that of Sean Gallagher, a sprightly 49 year old entrepreneur and TV host, who saw an 18 point leap in his poll ranking over just 9 days in mid October.

Gallagher maintained a commanding lead in the run up to the election with polls conducted the weekend before hand putting his support between 38 and 40%. His luck ran out when fellow nominee Martin McGuinness accused him of soliciting a donation for the now disgraced Fianna Fáil party in 2008.

Bank records later appeared to exonerate Mr. Gallagher but the polls were just 3 days away and the damage had been done. He went on to poll a respectable 28.5% but was swept away by the Labour Party candidate Michael D. Higgins.

The long suffering Mitt Romney, whose campaign recently launched a targeted counter attack on the resurgent Gingrich, may come to regret his course of action. The temperate Mr. Higgins took his place as Ireland's head of state by refusing to indulge in mud slinging and staying the only consistently scandal-free candidate. Even Mr. Gallagher acknowledged this, congratulating him on running a “positive” campaign as the results came in confirming victory for the 70 year old poet. As the Iowa caucuses draw ever closer Mr. Romney may wish he had left the hatchet job to another in the crowded field on nominees.